> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://us.mikirduit.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Long-Term Treasury ETFs or Bitcoin After the Election Selloff? What Aggressive Investors Should Weigh - URL: https://us.mikirduit.com/long-term-treasury-etfs-or-bitcoin-after-the-election-selloff-what-aggressive-investors-should-weigh/ - Published: 2026-11-06T10:09:47.000Z - Updated: 2026-11-06T10:09:47.000Z - Description: U.S. stocks just had their worst day in more than a year. Here is how long-term Treasury ETFs, Bitcoin and Bitcoin mining stocks compare on yield, fees and risk, and what to consider before you invest. - Author: Surya Rianto - Tags: Index & ETF Watch, Markets **Mikirduit –** U.S. stocks had their worst day since April 2025 on Nov. 5, 2026, and this time the trigger was politics and artificial intelligence, not tariffs. Investors who still want to take risk have two main candidates: long-term Treasury ETFs, which are not high-risk but have been volatile, and Bitcoin, which is. Neither is safe. This guide covers what each one does, what can go wrong, and how to size a position. ### **Key takeaways** - Stocks had their worst day since April 2025 on Nov. 5, 2026, as fears of tighter rules on AI data centers hit chip and tech shares. - Long-term Treasury ETFs like TLT and VGLT pay a yield above 5%, but with a duration of about 15 years, a 1-point rise in yields could cut their price by roughly 15%. - Bitcoin and mining stocks carry much higher risk. Size positions small, match them to your time horizon, and never borrow to buy. ## What Happened on Nov. 5 The S&P 500 fell 4.36% to 7,353.73, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 5.52%, and the Dow lost 1,833 points, or 3.44%. All three had their worst day since the April 2025 tariff shock, according to [Fox Business](https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/stocks-nov-5-2026?ref=us.mikirduit.com) and [CNBC-sourced market reports](https://www.stocktitan.net/articles/stock-market-today-live-november-5-2026?ref=us.mikirduit.com). A [CNN report](https://www.cnn.com/2026/11/05/investing/tech-heavy-nasdaq-plunges?ref=us.mikirduit.com) put the loss in market value at roughly $2.5 trillion. The damage was concentrated in AI-related companies. Nvidia fell about 9.3% and AMD about 17.3%, and a closely watched chip index dropped 12.3%. Investors had been worried that a Democratic sweep of Congress could bring tighter rules on AI data centers and slow the build-out that has driven much of the market's gains. It was also a sharp reversal. One day earlier, the Dow had jumped more than 1,500 points after the election results. Not everyone reads Thursday's drop as a lasting shift: Keith Lerner, chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services, called it more of a knee-jerk reaction than a reliable signal for how tech stocks will do under a Democratic Congress. Government bonds were bid as investors sold AI-linked stocks. ## Sign up for Mikirduit US Independent Stock Research, Earnings Analysis, and Valuation for Everyday Investors Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. ## Option 1: Long-Term Treasury ETFs The two funds most investors look at are the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) and the Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT). Both hold U.S. government bonds with long maturities, so credit risk is minimal. The risk is price swings when interest rates move. **What they offer.** As of Aug. 28, 2026, TLT reported a 30-day SEC yield of 5.12% and an expense ratio of 0.15%, according to [iShares](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239454/ishares-1020-year-treasury-bond-etf?ref=us.mikirduit.com). VGLT's expense ratio is lower, at about 0.03%. Yields change daily, so check the fund company's site for the current figure before you buy. **What can go wrong.** TLT's effective duration was about 15 years in July 2026\. As a rule of thumb, a fund's price moves roughly 1% for each year of duration when long-term yields move one percentage point. The table below shows what that implies. These are estimates, not forecasts, and they ignore the income you collect along the way. | Change in long-term Treasury yields | Approximate price change at \~15-year duration | | ----------------------------------- | ---------------------------------------------- | | +0.25 percentage point | about -3.8% | | +0.50 percentage point | about -7.6% | | +1.00 percentage point | about -15% | | \-0.50 percentage point | about +7.6% or slightly more | One point of care: it is long-term Treasury yields that drive these funds, not the Fed's policy rate directly. The two often move together but not always. Yields on long bonds can rise even when the Fed is cutting, and the reverse can happen too. [**Best Treasury ETFs if the Fed raises rates in 2026**](https://us.mikirduit.com/best-treasury-etfs-if-the-fed-raises-rates-in-2026-sgov-shy-ief-tlt-and-more-compared/) **Why some investors look at them now.** Rates are high enough that the income is meaningful, and these funds tend to rally if investors rush out of stocks or if the economy weakens and yields fall. The case against is just as plain. If yields keep rising, the price losses can outweigh the income. TLT's year-to-date total return was negative 2.48% as of Aug. 28, 2026, which shows how a 5% yield can still produce a loss. **Taxes.** Interest from Treasury funds is generally taxed as ordinary income at the federal level. Many states exempt the part that comes from Treasury interest, but the rules vary, so ask a tax professional about your situation. ## Option 2: Bitcoin Bitcoin has been trading around the $80,000 mark in recent months, well below its record above $120,000 set in October 2025\. Prices move quickly, so confirm the current quote before acting on any number in this article. **The cycle argument.** Bitcoin's supply growth is cut in half roughly every four years in an event called the halving. The next one is expected in 2028\. In past cycles, prices peaked within about a year or two of a halving, fell hard afterward, and began recovering in the year before the next one. Investors who follow this pattern argue that a recovery could start in the second half of 2027. **Its limits.** That pattern rests on only a handful of cycles. The market now includes spot ETFs, large corporate holders and a heavier link to Fed policy and risk appetite, and any of those can break an old pattern. Some analysts also warn the downside could reach the $50,000 to $60,000 range before a bottom forms. That is a scenario, not a prediction, but it shows the scale of loss a holder may have to sit through. **Direct ownership or an ETF?** A spot Bitcoin ETF tracks the price closely and trades in an ordinary brokerage or retirement account. It charges an annual management fee, which holding coins directly avoids. Direct ownership brings its own responsibilities, though: you need a reliable exchange or wallet, you must protect your keys, and crypto held this way has no FDIC or SIPC protection against theft or exchange failure. The IRS treats Bitcoin as property, so sales and trades can trigger capital gains taxes. For many people the ETF's convenience and recordkeeping are worth the fee. [Dow Beats S&P 500 After Midterms: Consumer Stocks Next?The Dow outpaced the S&P 500 and Nasdaq after the midterms, and three discounted consumer cyclical stocks (BKNG, DIS, YUM) rallied. We break down the opportunities, the risks and what to watch next.![](https://us.mikirduit.com/content/images/icon/Mikirduit-9d1c0953-c9ac-4f10-bb07-9e1e52d886ff.jpg)Mikirduit USSurya Rianto![](https://us.mikirduit.com/content/images/thumbnail/stock-cycle-a64ffff0-3f67-4622-945d-32370f50813a.jpg)](https://us.mikirduit.com/dow-jones-beats-the-s-p-500-and-nasdaq-after-the-midterms-are-consumer-cyclical-stocks-next/) ## Option 3: Bitcoin Mining Stocks Mining companies have historically moved more than Bitcoin itself, in both directions. The four names investors watch most are MARA Holdings (MARA), CleanSpark (CLSK), Riot Platforms (RIOT) and Bitdeer Technologies (BTDR). The group has changed. Falling margins after the 2024 halving pushed most miners to rent out their power and data centers for AI computing, and several have sold Bitcoin from their balance sheets to pay for it, according to [CoinDesk's reporting](https://www.kucoin.com/news/flash/bitcoin-miners-shift-focus-to-ai-infrastructure-selling-more-btc?ref=us.mikirduit.com). Bitdeer, for example, reported selling its holdings to fund data center expansion. MARA still holds the most Bitcoin of the four, though it has also said it is becoming an energy and digital infrastructure company and has loaned or pledged a portion of its coins. That shifts the risk. A miner's share price now depends on three things at once: the Bitcoin price, the cost of electricity and equipment, and how the market feels about AI spending. The Nov. 5 selloff showed that last factor can hit hard. A slowdown in AI data center construction could weigh on miners that are building AI hosting businesses, CleanSpark among them. Before buying any of them, read the latest quarterly filing and look at cash, debt, the cost to mine one coin, and how much Bitcoin is pledged as collateral. Share prices can fall further than Bitcoin does, and a company with heavy debt can lose most of its value in a prolonged downturn. ## How the Three Options Compare | Long-term Treasury ETFs | Bitcoin | Bitcoin mining stocks | | | ----------------------- | ----------------------------------------------- | ----------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------- | | Main driver | Long-term Treasury yields | Adoption, liquidity, the halving cycle | Bitcoin price, power costs, AI demand | | Income | Monthly interest, yield above 5% in late August | None | Usually none | | Biggest risk | Yields keep rising | A deep, multi-year drawdown | Bitcoin, debt and AI spending all turning down together | | Ongoing cost | About 0.03% to 0.15% a year | Exchange fees, or an ETF fee | Brokerage commissions, if any | | Risk level | Moderate to high for long maturities | High | Very high | | May suit | Investors who want income and can handle swings | Investors with a long horizon and high risk tolerance | Only a small slice of a high-risk allocation | ## Managing the Risk There is no best asset here, only the one whose risks you can live with. A few ground rules apply to all three. - **Match the money to the time horizon.** Money you may need within a few years should not sit in Bitcoin or mining stocks. Long-term Treasury funds can also lose value over several years if yields keep climbing. - **Size the position so a bad outcome is survivable.** Many financial planners suggest keeping speculative holdings to a small share of a portfolio. If a 50% drop would change your plans, the position is too large. - **Buy in stages.** Spreading purchases over several months reduces the chance of buying everything at a peak. It does not prevent losses, and it works only if you stick to the schedule. - **Don't borrow to buy.** Leverage and margin can turn a normal drop into a forced sale. - **Remember that the headline may fade.** Markets often overreact to political news in the first days, then settle. Decisions made on the worst day are rarely the best ones. If you are unsure how much risk fits your finances, a fee-only fiduciary adviser or a Certified Financial Planner can look at your full picture, including taxes and retirement accounts.