> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://us.mikirduit.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Oil Is Back at $100. Which Energy Stocks Are Worth Watching—and Which Are Too Expensive? - URL: https://us.mikirduit.com/oil-is-back-at-100-which-energy-stocks-are-worth-watching-and-which-are-too-expensive/ - Published: 2026-09-10T06:06:38.000Z - Updated: 2026-09-10T06:06:38.000Z - Description: Brent is back near $100 a barrel, boosting U.S. energy stocks. We compare EOG, Chevron and Exxon to see which names offer the best risk-reward—and why this may not be the best time to chase oil stocks. - Author: Surya Rianto - Tags: Stock Insight, Stocks **Mikirduit —** Brent crude is back above $100 a barrel, giving energy investors another reason to revisit U.S. oil and gas stocks. Brent briefly climbed above **$101 a barrel on Sept. 10, 2026**, while West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, moved above **$96 a barrel**. The S&P 500 Energy sector also gained about **1.1% on Sept. 9**. ### **3 Key Takeaways** - EOG stands out for its relatively strong balance sheet and attractive valuation versus other U.S. E&P stocks, though its earnings remain highly sensitive to oil-price normalization. - Chevron currently offers a more compelling growth profile than Exxon after the Hess acquisition, supported by higher production, faster synergy realization and stronger DCF upside. - With Brent near $100, energy-company earnings look strong, but long-term investors may get a better risk-reward opportunity after oil and sector valuations normalize. The obvious question is whether oil stocks still have room to run. The answer depends heavily on what type of energy company investors are looking at. Not every oil stock responds to higher crude prices in the same way. Some are highly exposed to WTI. Others have diversified production across Brent, natural gas and liquefied natural gas. Integrated majors have refining and chemicals businesses that can partially offset swings in upstream earnings. Oilfield-service companies, meanwhile, depend more on whether high commodity prices eventually translate into higher drilling and production activity. That makes stock selection increasingly important as crude approaches triple digits. ## Five Types of U.S.-Listed Energy Stocks For investors trying to navigate the sector, it helps to separate companies into several broad categories. ### Pure Shale Producers **Diamondback Energy Inc. (NASDAQ: FANG)** and **Devon Energy Corp. (NYSE: DVN)** are among the companies with relatively high exposure to U.S. shale production. Their earnings and cash flow tend to be closely tied to WTI prices. When domestic crude prices rise sharply, these stocks can offer significant upside torque. But that sensitivity works both ways: if WTI falls quickly, earnings can compress just as fast. ### Diversified Exploration and Production **EOG Resources Inc. (NYSE: EOG)**, **ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP)** and **Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: OXY)** remain primarily upstream businesses, but their production mix is more diversified. They can have exposure to combinations of WTI, Brent, natural gas and natural-gas liquids. That makes them somewhat less dependent on a single crude benchmark than a more narrowly focused shale producer. [Oil Is Closing In on $100 a Barrel. Here’s What Investors Can Do NowOil prices are closing in on $100 a barrel as Middle East tensions and tighter supply lift crude, creating upside for energy stocks but raising fresh inflation and Fed risks.![](https://us.mikirduit.com/content/images/icon/ChatGPT-Image-8-Sep-2026--11.20.24-819f0548-2778-411a-871a-a5b85fc3dfcd.png)Mikirduit USSurya Rianto![](https://us.mikirduit.com/content/images/thumbnail/saham-migas-bfb9212d-a515-42ed-a2a4-f3f1705ab1da.jpg)](https://us.mikirduit.com/oil-is-closing-in-on-100-a-barrel-heres-what-investors-can-do-now/) ### U.S. Integrated Majors **Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM)** and **Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX)** operate across a much broader portion of the energy value chain. Both have large upstream businesses, but also own downstream, refining, chemicals and other operations. That diversification can make earnings less volatile than those of pure E&P companies. ### Global Majors **Shell Plc (NYSE: SHEL)**, **TotalEnergies SE (NYSE: TTE)** and **BP Plc (NYSE: BP)** are globally diversified energy companies headquartered outside the U.S. Their production and earnings tend to be more closely linked to Brent, LNG and international natural-gas markets. ### Oilfield Services **SLB Ltd. (NYSE: SLB)** and **Halliburton Co. (NYSE: HAL)** don't primarily make money by selling crude. They provide the technology, equipment and services needed to find, drill and produce oil and gas. SLB has a more geographically diversified business and significant offshore exposure, while Halliburton has historically had greater sensitivity to North American shale activity. Both can benefit when higher commodity prices encourage producers to raise capital spending and drilling activity. ## EOG: One of the Strongest Balance Sheets in U.S. E&P Among the major U.S. exploration-and-production companies, **EOG Resources** stands out for the relative strength of its balance sheet. That may sound counterintuitive. At the end of the second quarter of 2026, EOG's debt had risen about **87% to roughly $7.9 billion**. Its net-debt position also changed dramatically. A year earlier, EOG had roughly **$980 million of net cash**, meaning cash exceeded debt. By the second quarter of 2026, the company had about **$3.02 billion of net debt**. On the surface, that looks like a deterioration. But most of the change stems from EOG's acquisition of **Encino Acquisition Partners** in the third quarter of 2025. Cash declined from around **$5.22 billion in the second quarter of 2025 to $4.91 billion a year later**, while debt increased from roughly **$4.24 billion to $7.93 billion**. That is how EOG moved from net cash to net debt. The more important question is whether the balance sheet remains healthy after the acquisition. We think it does. Compared with Occidental, ConocoPhillips, Devon and Diamondback, EOG still carries one of the more conservative financial profiles in the group. And its liquidity has already begun to rebuild. Since the Encino acquisition, EOG's cash position has improved by roughly **39% to $4.91 billion**. ## The Encino Deal Is Already Boosting Production The acquisition also materially increased EOG's production base. Total production rose roughly **24% to about 1.4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day**. But the composition of that production has changed. Crude oil accounted for roughly **38.9% of production in the second quarter of 2026**, down from **44.5% a year earlier**. Natural-gas liquids and natural gas grew faster. That means investors shouldn't think of EOG as simply a high-quality oil producer anymore. Its earnings profile is becoming increasingly influenced by gas. That diversification could help when oil prices weaken, but it also means EOG's exposure to a crude-price rally isn't as pure as it once was. ## EOG’s Profit Has Surged EOG's recent earnings performance has been strong. Net income increased roughly **102.5% to $2.72 billion**. Two factors explain most of that improvement. ### Higher Commodity Prices EOG's average realized oil price rose about **51% to $98.15 a barrel**, compared with roughly $64.82 a year earlier. Price contributed more to earnings growth than volume. Across EOG's broader oil-and-gas production mix, the average realized price increased roughly **26.9% to $50.52 per barrel of oil equivalent**, while production volumes rose about **24.4%**. That combination created significant operating leverage. ### Costs Remained Under Control EOG also kept per-unit cash costs relatively contained. Despite the surge in revenue, cash costs increased only about **6.3% to $10.57 per barrel of oil equivalent**. That allowed margins to expand sharply. There is one area worth watching. Gathering, processing and transportation costs rose about **19.5% to $5.27 per barrel of oil equivalent**. That may partly reflect higher infrastructure and transportation requirements following the expansion of EOG's asset base. If those costs continue rising faster than production, they could become a larger drag on margins. ## EOG’s Biggest Risk: WTI Back at $65 EOG's operating leverage is attractive when oil prices are high. It also creates downside risk. If WTI were to normalize back toward **$65 a barrel**, EOG could see a meaningful year-over-year earnings decline. That makes valuation particularly important at this point in the cycle. We looked at EOG from three perspectives. ### Relative Valuation On our estimates, EOG trades at around **9 times enterprise value to EBITDA**. That is lower than several peers: - Devon: **13.7x** - Diamondback: **49.3x** - Occidental: **12.7x** - ConocoPhillips: **11.4x** On that measure, EOG looks relatively inexpensive. ### Historical Valuation The problem is that EOG is expensive relative to itself. Its current EV/EBITDA multiple of roughly **9 times** is well above its five-year average of around **5.7 times**. So EOG may be cheap compared with peers—but expensive compared with its own historical trading range. ### Discounted Cash Flow Our DCF model produces an estimated fair value of approximately **$188 a share**. That is around **28% above a recent price of roughly $147**. On an absolute valuation basis, the stock still offers potential upside. But investors should keep the commodity cycle in mind. If oil prices normalize in 2027, both EOG's earnings and valuation multiple could compress at the same time. ## Where Could EOG Become More Attractive? We see two potentially interesting cyclical zones. If crude begins falling from elevated levels and the earnings impact starts showing up in EOG's financial statements, we would pay closer attention to roughly: **$81 to $101 a share.** If oil has already completed a full normalization cycle and EOG's earnings begin recovering again—potentially around 2028—we would view roughly: **$120 to $138 a share** as another potentially attractive zone. Those aren't short-term price targets. They are areas that could become relevant under different stages of the commodity cycle. ## Exxon vs. Chevron: Which Integrated Major Looks Better? For investors who prefer diversified energy exposure, **Exxon Mobil** and **Chevron** offer a different risk profile. Both have global operations across upstream production, refining and other downstream activities. Exxon remains the larger producer. Its output reached approximately **4.51 million barrels of oil equivalent per day**, compared with around **4.07 million** for Chevron. Exxon's earnings base is also more diversified. Roughly **58% of profit comes from upstream**, while the remaining **42%** comes from non-upstream businesses including energy products, chemicals and specialty products. That diversification can make Exxon more resilient across commodity cycles. Chevron, however, currently has the more aggressive growth story. ## Chevron’s Hess Acquisition Is Driving Growth Chevron's second-quarter 2026 net income rose nearly fourfold to around **$12.07 billion**, up from roughly $2.49 billion. Several factors drove the increase: - higher commodity prices, - the acquisition of Hess Corp., and - stronger downstream margins. The Hess acquisition was particularly important. Chevron's production increased about **19.8% to 4.07 million barrels of oil equivalent per day** following the deal. Hess also gives Chevron exposure to one of the world's most attractive oil-growth regions through Guyana. The integration appears to be moving faster than expected. Annualized run-rate synergies from the Hess acquisition have already reached approximately **$1.5 billion**, above Chevron's initial target of $1 billion. ## Chevron Is Generating Huge Cash Flow Chevron generated around **$18.1 billion of free cash flow**, slightly more than Exxon's roughly **$17.2 billion**. But investors should adjust that number. About **$1.4 billion** of Chevron's free cash flow benefited from favorable working-capital movements. On an adjusted basis, free cash flow was closer to **$15.4 billion**. That may provide a better picture of Chevron's underlying cash-generation capacity. Even after the adjustment, the business remains highly cash generative. ## Chevron Is Also Positioning for AI Power Demand One of Chevron's more interesting longer-term opportunities sits outside traditional oil production. The company has secured a **20-year agreement with Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT)** tied to approximately **2.67 gigawatts of power capacity**. That contract isn't yet a major earnings driver. But strategically, it could connect Chevron's natural-gas supply, power-generation capabilities and energy infrastructure with rapidly growing electricity demand from artificial-intelligence data centers. The AI power opportunity adds another layer to Chevron's long-term investment case. But for now, the main financial driver remains oil and gas. And that creates the same cyclical risk. If oil prices fall materially in 2027, Chevron's post-Hess growth could slow just as investors begin to evaluate the merger's full earnings contribution. ## Where Does ConocoPhillips Fit? ConocoPhillips occupies a different position from Exxon and Chevron. It doesn't have the same large-scale refining, chemicals and fuel-retail businesses. COP is primarily a global exploration-and-production company. That means its earnings remain more directly exposed to upstream commodity prices. For investors seeking an integrated energy major, Exxon and Chevron may therefore be more relevant comparisons. ## Chevron Looks Cheaper Than Exxon We compared Exxon and Chevron across three valuation measures. ### EV/EBITDA Chevron currently trades around **14.8 times EV/EBITDA**, compared with roughly **16.7 times for Exxon**. Given Chevron's stronger production-growth profile following the Hess transaction, that makes CVX look somewhat more attractive on a relative basis. ### Historical Multiples The problem is that both companies look expensive versus their own histories. Chevron's five-year average EV/EBITDA is roughly **6.8 times**, far below its current multiple of 14.8 times. Exxon's five-year average is around **7.4 times**, compared with roughly 16.7 times today. Both stocks therefore trade at substantial premiums to historical averages. ### Discounted Cash Flow Our DCF analysis favors Chevron. We estimate Chevron's fair value at approximately: **$238.16 a share.** That represents roughly **11.4% upside** from a Sept. 9 price near $213. For Exxon, our estimated fair value is approximately: **$165 a share.** That is only around **0.9% above** its Sept. 9 price of roughly $164.23. From that perspective, Chevron offers a more attractive risk-reward profile. ## The Problem: This May Be the Worst Time to Chase Oil Stocks Does that mean EOG, Chevron and Exxon are all buys today? Not necessarily. In fact, for long-term investors, this may be one of the least attractive points in the commodity cycle to aggressively build new positions. Oil is already near $100. At those levels, earnings expectations tend to rise quickly, investor enthusiasm increases and valuation multiples can expand. But commodity prices rarely remain extremely elevated indefinitely. If oil stays above $100 for too long, the economic consequences can eventually become self-defeating. Higher energy costs can pressure consumers, raise inflation and weaken economic growth. At the same time, any easing in geopolitical tensions could rapidly remove part of the risk premium embedded in crude prices. That creates a meaningful possibility that oil prices normalize toward roughly **$70 to $80 a barrel in 2027**. If that happens, energy companies could experience a simultaneous normalization in earnings, cash flow and share prices. ## The Bottom Line Oil at $100 creates excellent near-term economics for many producers. It doesn't necessarily create excellent entry points for investors. Among the companies we reviewed, **EOG stands out for its relatively strong balance sheet and attractive valuation versus E&P peers**, while **Chevron currently offers a more compelling growth and valuation profile than Exxon following its acquisition of Hess**. But both cases come with the same central risk: Today's earnings are being generated in an unusually favorable commodity environment. If crude prices normalize in 2027, the numbers could look very different. For investors with a multi-year horizon, a better strategy may be to build a watchlist now rather than chase the sector at peak commodity prices. We would become more interested once oil moves back toward roughly **$70 a barrel** and the resulting earnings normalization begins to show up in energy-company results. That is when high-quality oil stocks can become more compelling—not when crude is already trading near $100, but when the market has begun pricing in the next downturn. ## **The numbers are only the beginning.** Every week, Mikirduit US breaks down earnings, valuations, catalysts, and risks across U.S. stocks—so you can see what the market may be missing. [**Get the Weekly Briefing**](https://us.mikirduit.com/circle-is-paying-400-million-for-tazapay-why-crcl-stock-fell-and-what-the-deal-could-mean/#/portal/signup)