> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://us.mikirduit.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Oracle Stock Falls 10.7% After Force Majeure Notice on $18 Billion New Mexico AI Data Center - URL: https://us.mikirduit.com/oracle-stock-falls-force-majeure-new-mexico-data-center-project-jupiter/ - Published: 2026-09-29T10:22:26.000Z - Updated: 2026-09-30T14:16:45.000Z - Description: Oracle stock is down 10.71% after a force majeure notice on its $18B Project Jupiter AI data center. Blue Owl and Bloom Energy are exposed, and gas pipeline permits are the key risk. - Author: Surya Rianto - Tags: Stock Insight, Stocks Delay at Project Jupiter, a key piece of Oracle's OpenAI deal, hits shares of Oracle and developer Blue Owl and raises questions about Bloom Energy's fuel-cell rollout ### Key Takeaways - **Oracle isn't exiting, but it wants payment flexibility.** The company can't terminate the lease and remains responsible for the project's debt, yet the force majeure notice lets it seek to defer payments if Project Jupiter isn't operating on time. It came only days after management said the site was on schedule. - **Blue Owl bears the sharpest financial hit.** A delay keeps its return at 9% instead of 11%, a gap worth about $60 million a year on its $3 billion stake. Its shares fell 21.55% from Sept. 8 to Sept. 28, more than Oracle's decline. Bloom Energy is less exposed, since it can keep shipping fuel cells even if the site isn't yet live. - **Oracle looks cheap, but risk stays high.** At 15.7x EV/EBITDA versus a five-year average of 21.1x, and a DCF fair value of $199.77 against a $132.60 share price, the stock screens undervalued. High leverage, refinancing risk and the unresolved gas pipeline permits keep the outlook a wait-and-see. Oracle Corp. shares have fallen 10.71% since Sept. 22, after the company notified developer Blue Owl Capital Inc. that it might face delays securing power for a large AI data center in New Mexico, invoking a force majeure clause. The move has unsettled lenders and investors. It also puts a spotlight on who bears the risk when the buildout of artificial-intelligence infrastructure runs into physical constraints such as power, permits and pipelines. ### What Oracle Told Its Developer Oracle, the tenant, informed Blue Owl, which is developing the site, of a potential delay in securing electricity for the project. Oracle is responsible for arranging the power supply at the New Mexico facility, known as Project Jupiter. Force majeure clauses typically allow a company to seek relief from contractual obligations after an unforeseen event. That is why the announcement alarmed lenders and investors. Oracle has said it isn't walking away. Under the lease, the company can't terminate the agreement under any circumstances and remains responsible for paying the debt burden tied to the project. Blue Owl holds a $3 billion investment stake in the project. What Oracle is seeking is the ability to defer certain payments if the data center fails to come online on schedule. The notice came only days after Oracle management said Project Jupiter would begin operating as planned. ### The Economics for Blue Owl During the development phase, Blue Owl is guaranteed a 9% return on its capital. Once the facility starts operating, the return rises to 11%. The force majeure clause could let Oracle extend the lower-paying development-phase rent. Each month of delay keeps Blue Owl at 9% instead of 11%. On the $3 billion stake, that 2-percentage-point gap comes to about $60 million a year. Blue Owl's stock has come under sharper pressure than Oracle's. Its shares fell 21.55% between Sept. 8 and Sept. 28. [Cisco Stock Falls Despite AI Boom: Is CSCO Finally Cheap?Cisco’s AI business is booming, but falling margins and rising inventory are pressuring CSCO. Is the recent selloff finally creating an opportunity?![](https://us.mikirduit.com/content/images/icon/Mikirduit-225b6bf6-7f34-4c0b-bce6-976ed254eb51.jpg)Mikirduit USSurya Rianto![](https://us.mikirduit.com/content/images/thumbnail/Saham-CSCO-21978839-94f0-42a2-8595-60ca935f622f.png)](https://us.mikirduit.com/cisco-stock-keeps-falling-despite-surging-earnings-is-csco-finally-cheap/) ### A $18 Billion Project With Infrastructure Hurdles Project Jupiter is being built on 1,400 hectares, with $18 billion in financing from a bank consortium. It is part of Oracle's agreement with OpenAI to supply AI computing capacity. Construction has hit infrastructure snags. A planned natural gas pipeline faces legal challenges over water permits and air quality. If the project slips, Oracle's remaining performance obligations, a closely watched measure of contracted future revenue, may look larger than what is actually realized in the near term, since revenue recognition would follow the facility's start date. A delay could also force Oracle to refinance at higher interest rates, or to raise money by issuing new shares, which would dilute existing shareholders. Beyond the arithmetic, the biggest risk may be to investor confidence and to the financing of future projects. ### Bloom Energy Is Exposed, but Less So Bloom Energy Corp. is also in the frame. Oracle and BorderPlex plan to use up to 2.45 gigawatts of Bloom's fuel-cell capacity to power the site, replacing an earlier design built around gas turbines and diesel generators. The partners began discussing the framework on April 13 and confirmed their commitment on Sept. 24. Because the fuel cells run on natural gas, the pipeline permitting problems could disrupt the plan. Still, Bloom is likely to be less affected than Oracle or Blue Owl. It can continue shipping products and collecting revenue even if the data center isn't yet serving customers. The worst case would be delayed shipments or payments, or reduced or canceled orders. Cancellation looks unlikely unless the pipeline permits are denied and the data center itself is scrapped. Bloom hasn't included any Project Jupiter revenue in its 2026 numbers. It expects to begin recognizing it in 2027. ### The Second Warning Sign for the AI Boom? Oracle's notice is the second smaller warning this year for an AI trade that some see as overextended. The first came on July 14, when IBM Corp. shares fell 25% in a single day. IBM guided second-quarter revenue to about $17.2 billion, below the $17.9 billion analysts expected, and earnings per share to $2.27, versus a consensus of about $3.01\. One cause was customers redirecting budgets toward hardware for AI infrastructure. Clients rushed to buy servers, memory chips and storage, whose supply is increasingly tight, at the expense of spending on IBM's software, consulting and mainframes. IBM CEO Arvind Krishna acknowledged that the company had anticipated supply-chain disruption but said the shift in customers' capital spending was larger than expected. IBM's infrastructure segment, home to its flagship IBM Z mainframes used by banks and insurers for mission-critical transactions, was projected to decline 7%. The newest model, the AI-oriented IBM Z17, failed to generate the demand IBM had hoped for. According to MarketWatch, IBM expected the Z17 launch cycle to be nearing its end in the second quarter. The weakness matters because mainframe sales tend to drive software, maintenance, capacity upgrades, consulting and integration revenue. ### Outlook: Cheap Valuation, High Risk Oracle's fate now hinges heavily on whether the gas pipeline is built on schedule. Any change to the construction plan would weigh heavily on the shares. The analysis behind this report sees risk in Oracle stock as still high. Rising interest rates could make refinancing costs steeper if Project Jupiter is delayed. On valuation, Oracle looks cheapest among AI and infrastructure peers including Nvidia, Broadcom, Microsoft, Alphabet and Dell. Its enterprise value to EBITDA multiple of 15.7 times is the lowest of the group and below its five-year average of 21.1 times. A discounted cash flow model puts fair value at $199.77 a share. Against a last price of $132.60, that implies upside of as much as 50.6%. But with Oracle carrying a high level of leverage, a delay could push the shares lower still. Given those risks, the analysis concludes it is better to wait and see. ## FAQ ### **Why did Oracle stock fall?** Shares fell 10.71% after Oracle declared force majeure to developer Blue Owl over possible delays in securing power for the Project Jupiter data center in New Mexico. ### **Is Oracle canceling Project Jupiter?** No. Oracle says it is staying in the project and can't terminate the lease, but it is seeking to defer payments if the site isn't operating on time. ### **Who is affected besides Oracle?** Blue Owl (down 21.55% from Sept. 8 to Sept. 28) and, to a lesser extent, Bloom Energy, which plans to supply up to 2.45 GW of fuel cells. ### **Is Oracle stock undervalued?** At 15.7x EV/EBITDA versus a 21.1x five-year average, and a DCF fair value of $199.77 versus $132.60, it screens as cheap, but leverage and project risk remain high. ## **The numbers are only the beginning.** Every week, Mikirduit US breaks down earnings, valuations, catalysts, and risks across U.S. stocks—so you can see what the market may be missing. 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