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# Space Stocks Have Left Earth's Orbit, Valuations Haven't Come Back Down
- URL: https://us.mikirduit.com/space-stocks-have-left-earths-orbit-valuations-havent-come-back-down/
- Published: 2026-10-07T15:03:25.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-08T11:00:21.000Z
- Description: SpaceX, Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile are racing to connect phones, ships and data centers from orbit. Our fair-value models show all three trading above base-case estimates, with catalysts that stretch from late 2026 to 2028.
- Author: Surya Rianto
- Tags: Stock Battle, Stocks

The space trade is no longer just about rockets. The three biggest publicly traded bets on the industry (Space Exploration Technologies Corp., Rocket Lab Corp. and AST SpaceMobile Inc.) are increasingly fighting over something far more earthbound: who gets to connect your phone, your ship and your data center.

### Key Takeaways

- **All three stocks trade above base-case value.** SpaceX closed at $168 on Oct. 6 against a $59 base case. Rocket Lab trades at $71.84 versus $28.33 even with Iridium. AST SpaceMobile, at $59.32, is the "cheapest" but still above its $31.06-$41.92 base range.
- **The space trade is now a connectivity trade.** Connectivity and AI generated 87.4% of SpaceX's first-half revenue. Rocket Lab is buying Iridium, and AST SpaceMobile is building a space-based cellular network.
- **Catalysts are staggered, and exposure should stay modest.** AST plans commercial service in late 2026, Rocket Lab's Iridium deal could close by mid-2027, and SpaceX's direct-to-cell service isn't expected until late 2027\. We'd keep positions speculative and small, starting with AST.

Investors have noticed. All three stocks trade above what our valuation models suggest they are worth in a base-case scenario.

## **SpaceX: The Everything Machine**

Elon Musk's Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) is the most complete business of the group, with its own rockets, its Starlink satellite network and a fast-growing artificial-intelligence operation.

Its numbers show how far it has moved beyond launches. In the first half of 2026, revenue rose 53.7% to $12.5 billion, and gross profit climbed 70.1% to $6.62 billion. Connectivity and AI together generated 87.4% of sales. Rockets were not the main driver.

Profit is another matter. SpaceX lost $4.8 billion in the period, up 213% from a $1.53 billion loss a year earlier. Research-and-development spending doubled to $7 billion. The company posted a $2.08 billion operating loss, weighed down by depreciation, amortization and stock-based compensation. Adjusted EBITDA rose 58.5% to $4.66 billion.

The bright spot is Starlink's connectivity arm, which turned an operating profit of $2.84 billion, up 45.4%. But average monthly revenue per user fell 22.4% to $66 as the company expanded into lower-income markets with cheaper plans.

Upcoming catalysts include AI capacity growing to 2 gigawatts by the end of 2026, from 1.4 gigawatts at the end of the second quarter. A cloud contract could add $6.7 billion. The company is also pursuing a 1,000-satellite V3 broadband target by the second quarter of 2027 and direct-to-cell service starting late 2027, though the financial impact of the latter likely won't show until 2028\. Its $60 billion acquisition of Cursor, an AI coding startup, adds both upside and integration risk.

The risks are equally large. AI infrastructure requires enormous capital, and weak utilization could mean heavy losses. Profitability leans on a connectivity business whose per-user revenue is shrinking. Any delay in satellites, spectrum, ground infrastructure or regulatory approval could push back monetization. And share dilution looms from the Cursor deal, employee stock awards and future equity funding.

Our valuation puts SpaceX's bear case at $24.90 a share, base case at $59 and bull case at $120.80\. The stock closed at $168 on Oct. 6\. Even the bull case sits well below that price, though a recent IPO often takes months to settle into a stable valuation.

## **Rocket Lab: Betting on Iridium**

Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB) makes satellites, components and software, plus its own launch vehicles. Space systems account for about 75% of revenue.

First-half revenue rose 62.7% to $434 million and gross profit increased 97.3% to $161.07 million. The net loss narrowed to $94.28 million from $127.03 million.

The company's biggest catalyst is its planned acquisition of Iridium Communications (IRDM), expected to close around mid-2027\. Iridium has operated since 1998 and serves more than 2.55 million active subscribers, with annual revenue of $871 million and EBITDA of $495 million. The deal would give Rocket Lab a communications franchise that competes, loosely, with Starlink. Iridium emphasizes reliability and emergency backup in remote areas. Starlink is built for everyday broadband on ships, mountains and other places terrestrial networks don't reach.

The concerns: the U.S. government accounts for 42% of revenue, and the final financing mix, cash and stock, could dilute shareholders.

Our models value Rocket Lab at $8.94, $18.46 and $36.42 a share in bear, base and bull cases without Iridium. With a smooth Iridium deal, the range rises to $11.86, $28.33 and $55.60\. The stock trades at $71.84, above even the bull cases.

[BWMX Stock Analysis 2026: 8% Dividend Yield & Tupperware DealBetterware de Mexico (NYSE: BWMX) has closed its Tupperware acquisition and now offers an estimated dividend yield of about 8%. We break down H1 2026 results, management guidance, 2026-2027 forecasts, fair value and the risks investors should weigh before buying.![](https://us.mikirduit.com/content/images/icon/Mikirduit-ac99076e-381d-4518-b245-47788401c789.jpg)Mikirduit USSurya Rianto![](https://us.mikirduit.com/content/images/thumbnail/BWMX-tupperware-d0a4e9f2-37d1-43de-8caf-74377ae3c918.jpg)](https://us.mikirduit.com/betterware-de-mexico-bwmx-stock-analysis-can-the-tupperware-deal-support-an-8-dividend-yield-through-2027/)

## **AST SpaceMobile: Cheaper, But Not Cheap**

AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS) is a leaner story. It plans to build and operate satellites that beam broadband directly to ordinary cellphones, with mobile carriers handling customer billing and, in part, spectrum access. Its partners include AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, Rakuten Mobile, STC, Bell Canada and 2degrees. Unlike SpaceX and Rocket Lab, it has no launch vehicles of its own, leaving it exposed to rocket availability and scheduling.

First-half revenue jumped 2,368% to $46.2 million, but the net loss reached $549 million. Operating expenses rose 258% to $493 million, largely because of the loss of its BB7 satellite, which failed to reach its intended orbit and was deorbited on April 19\. After insurance recoveries, that cost the company $125.9 million. A non-cash adjustment related to an induced bond conversion added $88.65 million.

Remaining performance obligations total $1.2 billion, but only 6.6%, or $79.2 million, is expected to be recognized in the next 12 months. The network requires about 25 satellites for initial service, 45 to 60 for continuous coverage in major markets and about 90 for broader expansion. The company is targeting testing and network rollout milestones in late 2026, while broader commercial service is expected to begin in 2027 as the constellation expands toward roughly 45 satellites.

Our model, using enterprise value to sales through 2028, yields a bear case of $6.49 to $8.85, a base case of $31.06 to $41.92 and a bull case of $73.29 to $101.07\. At $59.32, the stock is well above base-case value, though cheaper than Rocket Lab and SpaceX on our measures.

## The Bottom Line

SpaceX is the full package, Rocket Lab is trying to catch up through acquisition, and AST is building a space-based cell network. All three carry high risk: a failed launch can be costly, and valuations already assume a lot of success.

If forced to choose, we favor the two with the nearest catalysts. AST is targeting testing and rollout milestones in late 2026, with broader commercial service expected in 2027\. SpaceX's direct-to-cell service isn't expected until late 2027 or early 2028\. Rocket Lab's Iridium deal could close by mid-2027.

We would keep any exposure to the sector speculative and modest. AST is the one we'd consider buying first, in stages. We would wait on SpaceX and Rocket Lab, particularly SpaceX, whose price may take until mid-2027 to settle after its IPO.

## FAQ

### **Is SpaceX stock overvalued?**

Our models say it is richly priced. SPCX closed at $168 on Oct. 6, 2026, well above our bull-case value of $120.80, and our base case is $59\. Recent IPOs often take months to settle, so the price may not stabilize until mid-2027.

### **How does SpaceX make most of its money?**

Mostly from Starlink connectivity and AI, not rockets. Together they generated 87.4% of SpaceX's first-half 2026 revenue. Starlink's connectivity business earned a $2.84 billion operating profit, up 45.4%.

### **Why is Rocket Lab buying Iridium Communications?**

The deal would give Rocket Lab an established satellite communications business with more than 2.55 million active subscribers, $871 million in annual revenue and $495 million in EBITDA. It is expected to close around mid-2027\. The financing, a mix of cash and stock, could dilute current shareholders.

### **Does AST SpaceMobile have its own rockets?**

No. Unlike SpaceX and Rocket Lab, AST relies on outside launch providers, so rocket availability and scheduling could delay its satellite deployment. It needs about 25 satellites for initial service and 45 to 60 for continuous coverage in major markets.

### **Which space stock looks best right now?**

Among the three, AST SpaceMobile has the nearest catalyst, with commercial service targeted for late 2026, and it's cheaper than SpaceX and Rocket Lab on our measures. It still trades above base-case value. We'd treat all three as speculative, and we'd wait on SpaceX and Rocket Lab.

### **What are the biggest risks of investing in space stocks?**

Launch failures can be costly. AST lost its BB7 satellite in April, a $125.9 million hit after insurance. Other risks include heavy capital spending, regulatory and spectrum delays, government dependence (42% of Rocket Lab's revenue) and share dilution from acquisitions and stock compensation.