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# The Dark Side of Investing in S&P 500 and Gold ETFs: Recovery Could Take a Decade
- URL: https://us.mikirduit.com/the-dark-side-of-investing-in-s-p-500-and-gold-etfs-recovery-could-take-a-decade/
- Published: 2026-10-21T08:45:56.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-21T08:45:56.000Z
- Description: S&P 500 and gold ETFs are often seen as reliable long-term growth assets, but history shows they can stall for more than a decade. We tested dollar-cost averaging through past sideways markets to see how investors would have fared, and what it means for buying near a peak today.
- Author: Surya Rianto
- Tags: Investment Strategy, Investing

U.S. stock index ETFs and gold are often seen as assets that tend to grow over time. But are they really risk-free for long-term investors? Our research points to one major risk: **long sideways markets**.

### Key Takeaways

- **Long sideways markets are a real risk.** The S&P 500 went about 13 years (2000 to 2013) without a new all-time high, and gold stalled for more than a decade (2011 to 2024).
- **DCA helped stocks, but not gold.** Investing $100 a month in IVV from 2001 produced modest gains of roughly 1% to 5% per year. The same approach with GLD from 2011 led to losses of 13% to 22% over three to five years.
- **Buying near a peak is the biggest danger.** Going all-in at elevated prices can leave you stuck for years, so holding cash or fixed-income assets while waiting for a pullback is a reasonable alternative.

We recently moved most of our U.S. stock and ETF holdings into cash while we plan our next portfolio steps. Two risks stood out. The U.S. stock market could consolidate, and gold could pull back after its sharp run-up. To gauge how bad things could get, we looked at the historical record for both assets.

### Long Stretches Without New Highs

The S&P 500 went through a long sideways period after the dot-com bubble, from roughly 2000 to 2013\. Gold had its own, from about 2011 to 2024\. In both cases, the flat period lasted more than a decade.

That means investors who go all-in near a market peak risk being stuck at a high entry price for years. The natural follow-up question is whether dollar-cost averaging (DCA) can still produce a gain during a long flat stretch. We ran a simple simulation to find out.

### The S&P 500: A 13-Year Detour

The S&P 500 spent nearly 13 years, from 2000 to 2013, without setting a new all-time high. That period included:

- The dot-com bubble (1999–2001)
- The housing boom (2002–2006)
- The subprime mortgage crisis (2007–2009)
- The 2013 “taper tantrum,” when the Federal Reserve began signaling tighter monetary policy

Could an investor have made money during that stretch? We modeled investing $100 per month in the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), starting in January 2001\. We tested exit points after about three and five years. We excluded dividends, so actual returns would have been somewhat higher.

- **Three-year hold (2001–2004):** cumulative gains of about 5.12% to 15.5%, or roughly 1% to 5% per year.
- **Five-year hold (2001–2006):** cumulative gains of about 13.68% to 22.63%, or roughly 2% to 4% per year.

These are modest returns, but they were positive. This is close to a worst-case view for S&P 500 investors if another long sideways period develops. Outside of those extreme episodes, the index has historically gone through consolidation phases lasting from about three months to three years before moving on to new highs.

[Buy the Dip or Wait? DCA Lessons from the 2021 Tech BoomWith U.S. stocks drifting sideways and AI optimism under pressure, should you wait or keep investing? We tested a $100-a-month strategy starting at the 2021 tech peak across five assets. The results point to a simple, low-stress approach.![](https://us.mikirduit.com/content/images/icon/Mikirduit-4825b8ed-1887-4259-9359-ab69dad185e4.jpg)Mikirduit USSurya Rianto![](https://us.mikirduit.com/content/images/thumbnail/Stock-Investing-DCA-1830f28c-c9b2-47f7-9c24-21e6aae9abbb.jpg)](https://us.mikirduit.com/wall-street-at-a-crossroads-wait-it-out-or-keep-buying-the-dip/)

### Gold: A Harder Road

Gold’s flat period ran from 2011 to 2024\. Part of the cause was monetary tightening after the financial crisis recovery. The Fed began shifting policy in 2013, though actual rate hikes didn’t arrive until 2015\. COVID-19 briefly pushed gold back toward its 2011 peak, but prices then drifted sideways again until rising in 2024.

We modeled DCA into the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) from 2011 through 2016, again testing three- and five-year windows. The results were much weaker:

- **Three-year hold:** losses of about 15% to 22.2%.
- **Five-year hold:** losses of about 13% to 19.15%.

### What This Means

Buying at or near a market peak carries real risk, even with diversified ETFs. If a long sideways market returns:

- **U.S. stocks** may take roughly three to five years to recover, with only moderate returns for investors who bought near the top.
- **Gold** could take more than five years to recover, and historically has produced losses for those who started investing near a peak.

Current conditions add to the concern. Interest rates are moving higher again. We expect this rate-hiking trend to ease by the second half of 2027, with cuts possible afterward, but the near-term risk of consolidation in both stocks and gold remains significant.

Even DCA, which spreads out entry prices, carries risk when you begin at elevated levels. For investors worried about this, an alternative is to hold cash or move into fixed-income assets such as bonds or certificates of deposit while waiting for a market pullback.