How We Found AT&T (T) in 2024 and Earned a 50% Return: Is It Attractive Again?
We built a position in AT&T (NYSE: T) throughout 2024 and sold in February 2025 for a gain of roughly 50% before dividends. Now the stock has slipped to $21.11 on competition fears from Starlink. Here is how we found the original opportunity and why we are staying cautious today.
Mikirduit – We bought AT&T (NYSE: T) at the right time. After a steep decline that began in 2016, the stock staged a strong recovery. We built our position throughout 2024 and sold in February 2025 for a gain of roughly 50% on price alone. So how did we spot it, and does it still look attractive today?
Key Takeaways
- Price weakness, not business weakness, created the opportunity. AT&T’s share price fell 52% from late 2019 to August 2023, while net income still grew 3.5%. Buying monthly throughout 2024 at an average of about $16.60 and selling at $25 in February 2025 produced a gain of roughly 50.6% before dividends.
- The 2024 earnings drop was mostly non-operating. Net income fell 24% because of a goodwill write-down and higher depreciation. Meanwhile, free cash flow rose 5.2% to $17.6 billion and adjusted EBITDA grew 3.1% to $44.8 billion.
- Today the stock looks cheap, but real risks remain. At $21.11, AT&T faces a potential Starlink direct-to-cell threat, slowing postpaid subscriber growth, leverage rising to 3.13x, and a 4% drop in fiber ARPU. We are waiting on the sidelines near $20.
Why AT&T Caught Our Eye
We saw AT&T as a dividend stock with room for its operations to keep growing.
From November 13, 2019, through August 15, 2023, the share price fell 52%. Over the same period (2019 to 2023), net income still grew a modest 3.5%. In other words, the market had punished the stock far more than the business results justified.
Buying wasn’t an easy call. AT&T had just cut its dividend by about 50% in 2022 as part of a restructuring. That year, it spun off WarnerMedia and merged it with Discovery, creating Warner Bros. Discovery (NYSE: WBD). The deal closed in April 2022.
The spin-off was a clear positive. It relieved AT&T of a heavy debt load of $199.2 billion and improved its free cash flow from 2022 onward.
With the company refocused on telecom infrastructure, the core business held up well:
- Recurring mobile service revenue grew 3.5%.
- Mobile EBITDA rose 6.3%.
- Postpaid phone churn fell to 0.76%.
- Fiber subscribers grew 12.3%.
- Consumer Wireline EBITDA rose about 10%.
We also saw turnaround potential heading into 2025. AT&T’s 2024 net income fell 24%, but the drop came from non-operating items rather than weaker operations:
- A $4.42 billion goodwill write-down in its Business Wireline unit.
- Higher depreciation from faster equipment replacement as the company modernized its network.
Meanwhile, the cash metrics improved. Free cash flow rose 5.2% to $17.6 billion in 2024, and adjusted EBITDA grew 3.1% to $44.8 billion.
Surya Rianto
Our 2024 Strategy: Dollar-Cost Averaging
We bought AT&T shares in installments every month from January through December 2024, a strategy known as dollar-cost averaging. We chose it to manage risk in case the recovery took longer than expected.
Our average purchase price over the 12 months was about $16.60 per share. We sold at $25.00 per share in February 2025, a price gain of about 50.6%, before counting dividends collected along the way. Including dividends, our total return was higher still.
Is AT&T Attractive Again Today?
As of October 23, 2026, AT&T shares have slipped to $21.11. That is well below our February 2025 exit price. Here is what is weighing on the stock.
The Starlink threat. Investors worry that SpaceX’s (NASDAQ: SPCX) direct-to-cell service could take market share from traditional carriers like AT&T. SpaceX has also been aggressive, acquiring low-band 800 MHz spectrum and leasing terrestrial cell towers to support Starlink.
Slower subscriber growth. AT&T added 379,000 postpaid phone subscribers in the third quarter of 2026. That missed analyst expectations and trailed the 432,000 added in the second quarter.
Rising leverage. Net debt has climbed to $149.8 billion. The ratio of net debt to adjusted EBITDA rose to 3.13x, up from 2.68x a year earlier.
Pressure in fiber. Fiber ARPU (average revenue per user) fell 4%, driven by introductory pricing, bundle discounts, and new customers from the Lumen footprint who generate lower ARPU.
There is some good news. In its third-quarter report, AT&T raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $2.40, up from the $2.25 to $2.35 range it gave in July. However, much of the increase comes from lower depreciation tied to its Mexico business being classified as held for sale. That makes earnings look better on paper without adding any cash.
Our Take
Based on today’s numbers, AT&T looks inexpensive. But the stock carries real risks: competition from Starlink and the challenge of improving its fiber business.
For that reason, we are staying on the sidelines at around $20 per share. The deciding factor will be how Starlink’s telecom service rolls out in practice and how much it disrupts traditional carriers like AT&T.
Mikirduit US provides independent financial research and educational content. This article is not personalized investment advice, and investors should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.
